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How Monte Carlo Simulation WorksInterpreting Monte Carlo ResultsSignificance Testing: Is My Outperformance Real?
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Monte Carlo

Randomized simulations for assessing strategy robustness -- how they work and how to interpret results.

How Monte Carlo Simulation Works
Trade reshuffling explained -- how Simula randomizes trade order to generate thousands of equity paths, what it preserves, what it randomizes, and what questions it answers.
Interpreting Monte Carlo Results
How to read confidence bands, probability of ruin and wipeout, drawdown distributions, VaR, and what the results mean for strategy robustness.
Significance Testing: Is My Outperformance Real?
The statistical significance test in the Monte Carlo tab -- how it judges whether your edge over buy-and-hold could be luck, how to read the p-value, and why it cannot tell you whether a strategy is overfit.